Bitcoin Basis & ETF Flow - Daily Brief

The rebound is better-supported than it looks (ETF pressure eased to slightly positive, CPI came in softer, and OI fell), but higher, consistently positive funding makes the structure more fragile: longs are paying up, so a stall can unwind faster. Over the next 72 hours, odds shift toward range/continued recovery, with funding acting as the main limiter. Inputs BTC Spot Close: $68,812 (Feb 13); $66,219 (Feb 12) ETF Flow 1D: +$15.1m (Feb 13); -$410.2m (Feb 12) CME Front Contract: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27 Front Close: $68,835 (Feb 13) CME OI Total (contracts): 23,084 (Feb 13); 23,375 (Feb 12) CME OI Front (contracts): 16,846 (Feb 13); 17,605 (Feb 12) OI-Weighted Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0049; 0.0046; 0.0025; 0.0031 Macro (US CPI, Jan): CPI m/m +0.2% (exp +0.3%, prior +0.3%) CPI y/y +2.4% (exp +2.5%, prior +2.7%) Core CPI y/y +2.5% (exp +2.5%, prior +2.6%) Daily read After Feb. 12’s flow shock (spot $66,219 with ETF −$410.2m), Feb. 13 delivered a sharp snapback to $68,812 . The k...

  The tape turned more defensive: ETF outflows deepened to −$410.2m , spot slipped again, and funding turned consistently positive —the market is paying to be long despite a falling price. With total CME OI ticking slightly higher , second‑leg downside risk stays elevated, especially if 65k breaks. Inputs BTC Spot Close: $66,219 (Feb 12); $67,066 (Feb 11) ETF Flow 1D: -$410.2m (Feb 12); -$276.3m (Feb 11) CME Front Contract: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: $66,240 (Feb 12) CME OI Total (contracts): 23,375 (Feb 12); 23,019 (Feb 11) CME OI Front (contracts): 17,605 (Feb 12); 17,768 (Feb 11) OI-Weighted Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0016; 0.0047; 0.0040; 0.0031 Daily read Feb. 12 behaved like a flow-led market: price discovered lower , closing at $66,219 versus $67,066. The more important move was in the driver—ETF flows deteriorated further to −$410.2m (worse than −$276.3m on Feb. 11). That kind of acceleration in outflows typically keeps rallies fragile until the headwind ea...

A flow-driven risk shift: spot weakness was validated by a sharp ETF outflow , while CME OI fell, signaling deleveraging that can reduce liquidation tail-risk. As long as outflows persist, rebounds remain fragile. Inputs Spot Close: 67,066 (Feb 11); 68,811 (Feb 10) ETF Flow 1D: -$276.3m (Feb 11); +$166.5m (Feb 10) CME Front: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: 67,635 (Feb 11) CME OI Total (contracts): 23,019 (Feb 11); 24,157 (Feb 10) CME OI Front (contracts): 17,768 (Feb 11); 19,187 (Feb 10) Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0005; 0.0023; -0.0006; 0.0014 Daily read Feb. 11 confirmed that flows are the dominant near-term driver . Spot closed at 67,066 versus 68,811 (another ~−2.5%), but the bigger shift was ETFs flipping to a large −$276.3m outflow after the prior day’s inflow. That kind of headwind tends to make rallies fragile until flows stabilize. CME basis was modestly positive (67,635 vs 67,066), but on heavy outflow days this often reflects hedging and futures positioning rathe...

  A pullback with flows still supportive : spot fell, but ETF inflows strengthened , CME basis collapsed to near flat, and funding stayed close to neutral. The main near-term risk is whipsaw , because open interest rose into the down day. Inputs Spot Close: 68,811 (Feb 10); 70,086 (Feb 09) ETF Flow 1D: +$166.5m (Feb 10); +$144.9m (Feb 09) CME Front: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: 68,810 (Feb 10) CME OI Total (contracts): 24,157 (Feb 10); 23,643 (Feb 09) CME OI Front (contracts): 19,187 (Feb 10); 18,933 (Feb 09) Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0018; -0.0024; -0.0032; 0.0007 Daily read Feb. 10 looked like a reset after BTC failed to hold 70k: spot closed at 68,811 versus 70,086 (about −2.5%). But unlike classic selloffs, the move was not validated by outflows —ETFs printed a second consecutive inflow , larger than the prior day (+$166.5m vs +$144.9m). That flow backdrop typically limits immediate spot capitulation risk. Derivatives cooled notably: CME front settled essentiall...