11 Feb 2026 - Spot-led Pressure



A flow-driven risk shift: spot weakness was validated by a sharp ETF outflow, while CME OI fell, signaling deleveraging that can reduce liquidation tail-risk. As long as outflows persist, rebounds remain fragile.

Inputs

  • Spot Close: 67,066 (Feb 11); 68,811 (Feb 10)
  • ETF Flow 1D: -$276.3m (Feb 11); +$166.5m (Feb 10)
  • CME Front: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: 67,635 (Feb 11)
  • CME OI Total (contracts): 23,019 (Feb 11); 24,157 (Feb 10)
  • CME OI Front (contracts): 17,768 (Feb 11); 19,187 (Feb 10)
  • Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0005; 0.0023; -0.0006; 0.0014

Daily read

Feb. 11 confirmed that flows are the dominant near-term driver. Spot closed at 67,066 versus 68,811 (another ~−2.5%), but the bigger shift was ETFs flipping to a large −$276.3m outflow after the prior day’s inflow. That kind of headwind tends to make rallies fragile until flows stabilize.

CME basis was modestly positive (67,635 vs 67,066), but on heavy outflow days this often reflects hedging and futures positioning rather than clean risk-on carry demand.

The constructive offset was positioning: CME OI fell (total and front both down sharply vs Feb. 10), signaling deleveraging - less fuel for extended liquidation cascades. Funding stayed calm and slightly positive. None of that removes the flow headwind, but it does shape the path: more range and shocks, fewer “straight-line” cascades.

3-day forecast (Feb 12–14, 2026 UTC)

Scenario A - base case (~45%): choppy 65k–69k range, rotating through 66.5k–68.5k.
Base case because outflows remain the macro pressure point, while deleveraging (OI down) and non-extreme funding push price action toward a noisy equilibrium search rather than a clean trend.

Scenario B (~35%): second leg down into 62.5k–65k, then a reflexive bounce.
High odds if outflows persist another 1–2 days: breaks through nearby supports (66k–65k) often accelerate into lower liquidity zones. The bounce is typically mechanical, driven by position-clearing rather than a regime change. Odds rise if OI starts building again into weakness and funding turns persistently negative.

Scenario C (~20%): V-shaped rebound to 69k–71.5k.
Lower probability because it requires the headwind to reverse quickly - ETF flows need to return to neutral/positive, while spot must hold 66k–67k to avoid a “dead-cat” profile.

Takeaways

Feb. 11 was the session where selling pressure became flow-confirmed, tilting the 72-hour distribution lower. The positive is deleveraging and calm funding, which can reduce liquidation tail-risk. But until ETF outflows moderate, the working assumption is: rallies are vulnerable, the range stays wide, and a second-leg risk remains live.