10 Feb 2026 - ETF Stayed Positive

 

A pullback with flows still supportive: spot fell, but ETF inflows strengthened, CME basis collapsed to near flat, and funding stayed close to neutral. The main near-term risk is whipsaw, because open interest rose into the down day.

Inputs

• Spot Close: 68,811 (Feb 10); 70,086 (Feb 09)
• ETF Flow 1D: +$166.5m (Feb 10); +$144.9m (Feb 09)
• CME Front: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: 68,810 (Feb 10)
• CME OI Total (contracts): 24,157 (Feb 10); 23,643 (Feb 09)
• CME OI Front (contracts): 19,187 (Feb 10); 18,933 (Feb 09)
• Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0018; -0.0024; -0.0032; 0.0007

Daily read

Feb. 10 looked like a reset after BTC failed to hold 70k: spot closed at 68,811 versus 70,086 (about −2.5%). But unlike classic selloffs, the move was not validated by outflows—ETFs printed a second consecutive inflow, larger than the prior day (+$166.5m vs +$144.9m). That flow backdrop typically limits immediate spot capitulation risk.

Derivatives cooled notably: CME front settled essentially at spot (68,810 vs 68,811), and funding prints hovered around zero with a slight negative bias—no signs of long-side overheating.

The main tension came from positioning: CME OI rose on the down day (both total and front up vs Feb. 9). That tends to increase “springiness,” raising the odds of sharp intraday probes and fast reversals.

3-day forecast (Feb 11–13, 2026 UTC)

Scenario A — base case (~50%): wide range with frequent reversals.
Most likely because ETF inflows stayed positive while derivatives show no leverage stress (flat basis, near-neutral funding). That mix usually produces rotation around 68–69k rather than trend continuation.

Scenario B (~30%): rebound and a renewed test of 70k.
Supported by two straight days of real-money inflows. If inflows persist and 68–69k holds as value, a technical re-test of 70k is a natural path.

Scenario C (~20%): continuation lower toward 67k–66k.
The risk comes from OI rising into weakness: if flows fade or flip, the market can reprice the range lower quickly.

Takeaways

Feb. 10 was a consolidation-style pullback, cushioned by ETF inflows and a cooled derivatives profile. The near-term hazard is whipsaw, given the OI build on a red day. The key regime-switch signal remains flow-driven: sustained flow deterioration would shift the odds toward the downside scenario.