12 Feb 2026 - Outflows Worsened

 

The tape turned more defensive: ETF outflows deepened to −$410.2m, spot slipped again, and funding turned consistently positive—the market is paying to be long despite a falling price. With total CME OI ticking slightly higher, second‑leg downside risk stays elevated, especially if 65k breaks.

Inputs

• BTC Spot Close: $66,219 (Feb 12); $67,066 (Feb 11)
• ETF Flow 1D: -$410.2m (Feb 12); -$276.3m (Feb 11)
• CME Front Contract: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: $66,240 (Feb 12)
• CME OI Total (contracts): 23,375 (Feb 12); 23,019 (Feb 11)
• CME OI Front (contracts): 17,605 (Feb 12); 17,768 (Feb 11)
• OI-Weighted Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0016; 0.0047; 0.0040; 0.0031

Daily read

Feb. 12 behaved like a flow-led market: price discovered lower, closing at $66,219 versus $67,066. The more important move was in the driver—ETF flows deteriorated further to −$410.2m (worse than −$276.3m on Feb. 11). That kind of acceleration in outflows typically keeps rallies fragile until the headwind eases.

Derivatives didn’t provide a bullish cushion. CME front settled essentially on top of spot ($66,240 vs $66,219), leaving the basis near flat—more consistent with caution than with strong carry demand.

Positioning is where the short-term risk sits: total CME OI edged up (23,019 → 23,375) while funding prints were positive across the day. When price falls but funding stays persistently positive, it often signals bottom-fishing longs leaning on leverage. That setup can unwind quickly if support gives way.

3-day forecast (Feb 13–15, 2026 UTC)

Scenario A — base case (~45%): heavy, sell-the-rip range with a downside tilt, roughly 64.5k–67.5k.
Most likely because the flow headwind intensified, but positioning hasn’t fully capitulated (no sharp OI collapse). That combination often produces choppy rotations and faded rebounds rather than a clean trend. Stabilization would likely require outflows to at least moderate materially from current levels.

Scenario B (~40%): second leg down into 62.5k–65k, then a technical bounce.
Nearly as likely given the mix of very large outflows and positive funding—a fragile configuration if spot continues lower. A break of nearby supports (with 65k as the obvious line in the sand) can accelerate on forced long unwinds. The rebound, if/when it comes, is more likely mechanical (position clearing) than a true regime reversal.

Scenario C (~15%): V-shaped rebound toward 68.5k–70k.
Lower odds because it requires the driver to flip: ETF flows would need to return to near-flat/positive quickly, and funding would need to remain contained. Without that, rallies tend to be sold into persistent flow pressure.

Takeaways

Feb. 12 strengthened the “flow is the story” narrative: outflows worsened, spot weakened again, and derivatives became less comfortable as funding stayed positive during the decline. Until ETF pressure eases, the 72-hour distribution remains skewed toward sell-the-rip range trading with a live second-leg downside risk.