17 Feb 2026 - ETF Flow Negative Again

 


Flows turned negative again: ETFs printed a −$104.9m outflow, spot slipped to $67.5k, and funding stayed very positively elevated, making leveraged longs expensive and more prone to fast de-risking. Total CME OI ticked up, keeping the market “springy.” Base case for the next 72 hours: range with a downside tilt unless flows improve and funding cools.


Inputs

  • BTC Spot Close: $67,469 (Feb 17); $68,812 (Feb 13)
  • ETF Flow 1D: -$104.9m (Feb 17); +$15.1m (Feb 13); -$410.2m (Feb 12)
  • CME Front Contract: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: $67,625 (Feb 17)
  • CME OI Total (contracts): 23,335 (Feb 17); 23,084 (Feb 13)
  • CME OI Front (contracts): 16,280 (Feb 17); 16,846 (Feb 13)
  • OI-Weighted Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0059; 0.0044; 0.0043; 0.0047

Daily read

After the Feb. 13 relief (spot $68,812 with +$15.1m ETF flow), Feb. 17 slid back to $67,469. The key shift was ETF flows flipping back negative (−$104.9m). It’s far smaller than Feb. 12’s shock (−$410.2m), but it’s enough to keep rallies fragile and to reintroduce “sell-the-rip” behavior.


Derivatives were mixed:

  • CME basis was mildly positive: $67,625 vs $67,469 (~0.23% premium), not a sign of euphoric carry demand.
  • Total OI rose while front OI fell, which often points to rolling/spreads rather than pure front-month risk addition. Either way, aggregate positioning isn’t shrinking.

The dominant signal is very high, consistently positive funding. When funding stays this elevated, longs are paying up; if price doesn’t keep trending higher, the structure becomes fragile and pullbacks can accelerate as leveraged participants de-risk.


3-day forecast (Feb 18–20, 2026 UTC)

Scenario A - base case (~45%): 66k–68.5k range with a sell-the-rip bias.
Driven by mildly negative flows, elevated funding, and stable-to-higher aggregate OI - conditions that usually create choppy two-way trade around 67k rather than a clean trend.

Scenario B (~35%): push down into 64.5k–66k, then a fast technical bounce.
Meaningful odds because outflows + high funding + non-falling total OI can set up a quick long cleanout if local supports break. The rebound is likely mechanical rather than a regime change.


Scenario C (~20%): recovery toward 68.8k–70k.
Lower probability unless ETF flows return to near-flat/positive and/or funding cools materially - otherwise upside attempts tend to fade quickly.


Takeaways

Feb. 17 reintroduced a negative flow backdrop and kept a structurally important warning light on: funding is still too positive, making longs vulnerable. With aggregate positioning not collapsing, the next 72 hours are most consistent with a choppy range skewed lower, with the main tail risk being a sharp long unwind if flows worsen or key supports give way.