13 Feb 2026 - Genuine Relief


The rebound is better-supported than it looks (ETF pressure eased to slightly positive, CPI came in softer, and OI fell), but higher, consistently positive funding makes the structure more fragile: longs are paying up, so a stall can unwind faster. Over the next 72 hours, odds shift toward range/continued recovery, with funding acting as the main limiter.

Inputs

  • BTC Spot Close: $68,812 (Feb 13); $66,219 (Feb 12)
  • ETF Flow 1D: +$15.1m (Feb 13); -$410.2m (Feb 12)
  • CME Front Contract: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27
  • Front Close: $68,835 (Feb 13)
  • CME OI Total (contracts): 23,084 (Feb 13); 23,375 (Feb 12)
  • CME OI Front (contracts): 16,846 (Feb 13); 17,605 (Feb 12)
  • OI-Weighted Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0049; 0.0046; 0.0025; 0.0031

Macro (US CPI, Jan):

  • CPI m/m +0.2% (exp +0.3%, prior +0.3%)
  • CPI y/y +2.4% (exp +2.5%, prior +2.7%)
  • Core CPI y/y +2.5% (exp +2.5%, prior +2.6%)

Daily read

After Feb. 12’s flow shock (spot $66,219 with ETF −$410.2m), Feb. 13 delivered a sharp snapback to $68,812. The key change was flows: ETFs improved dramatically to + $15.1m, effectively removing the systematic selling pressure for the session. That alone can reprice the short-term balance zone upward.

Macro added a tailwind. CPI printed softer than expected on both monthly and annual measures, with core matching expectations and cooling versus the prior reading. That typically eases rate-pressure at the margin and supports risk assets—especially after a flow-driven overshoot.

CME basis stayed near flat (front $68,835 vs spot $68,812), suggesting no obvious carry mania. Positioning looked healthier too: open interest declined (total 23,375 → 23,084; front 17,605 → 16,846), consistent with deleveraging after stress.

The funding is the key nuance: all 6h prints were consistently and meaningfully positive. That’s fine during an upswing, but it can become a vulnerability if price stalls—leveraged longs are paying, and they tend to de-risk faster on any reversal.

3-day forecast (Feb 14–16, 2026 UTC)

Scenario A — base case (~45%): consolidation in a 67k–70k band with sharper intraday swings.
Most likely because the flow headwind eased and CPI helped, while OI fell (less cascade fuel). But elevated positive funding makes the market “springy,” often translating into choppy, two-way trade rather than smooth upside.

Scenario B (~35%): continuation higher toward 70k–71.5k.
Supported by improved flows, softer macro, and deleveraging. To sustain it, ETF flows likely need to stay near-flat/positive for multiple sessions, and funding shouldn’t accelerate further—otherwise the rally becomes increasingly fragile.

Scenario C (~20%): pullback to re-test 66k–65k.
Still live if the ETF improvement proves temporary. With funding elevated, a renewed outflow wave can trigger quicker long de-risking, making a drop back through 67k more consequential.

Takeaways

Feb. 13 brought genuine relief: flows improved, CPI supported risk-on, and OI fell. The caveat is elevated positive funding, which makes the rebound more dependent on continued flow support. For the next 72 hours, the market remains flow-led: sustained near-flat/positive ETF flows keep the recovery path open; renewed outflows reintroduce the downside re-test quickly.