Bitcoin Basis & ETF Flow - Daily Brief

A flow-driven risk shift: spot weakness was validated by a sharp ETF outflow , while CME OI fell, signaling deleveraging that can reduce liquidation tail-risk. As long as outflows persist, rebounds remain fragile. Inputs Spot Close: 67,066 (Feb 11); 68,811 (Feb 10) ETF Flow 1D: -$276.3m (Feb 11); +$166.5m (Feb 10) CME Front: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: 67,635 (Feb 11) CME OI Total (contracts): 23,019 (Feb 11); 24,157 (Feb 10) CME OI Front (contracts): 17,768 (Feb 11); 19,187 (Feb 10) Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0005; 0.0023; -0.0006; 0.0014 Daily read Feb. 11 confirmed that flows are the dominant near-term driver . Spot closed at 67,066 versus 68,811 (another ~−2.5%), but the bigger shift was ETFs flipping to a large −$276.3m outflow after the prior day’s inflow. That kind of headwind tends to make rallies fragile until flows stabilize. CME basis was modestly positive (67,635 vs 67,066), but on heavy outflow days this often reflects hedging and futures positioning rathe...

  A pullback with flows still supportive : spot fell, but ETF inflows strengthened , CME basis collapsed to near flat, and funding stayed close to neutral. The main near-term risk is whipsaw , because open interest rose into the down day. Inputs Spot Close: 68,811 (Feb 10); 70,086 (Feb 09) ETF Flow 1D: +$166.5m (Feb 10); +$144.9m (Feb 09) CME Front: BTC Feb26; Expiry: 2026-02-27; Front Close: 68,810 (Feb 10) CME OI Total (contracts): 24,157 (Feb 10); 23,643 (Feb 09) CME OI Front (contracts): 19,187 (Feb 10); 18,933 (Feb 09) Funding 6h prints (%): 0.0018; -0.0024; -0.0032; 0.0007 Daily read Feb. 10 looked like a reset after BTC failed to hold 70k: spot closed at 68,811 versus 70,086 (about −2.5%). But unlike classic selloffs, the move was not validated by outflows —ETFs printed a second consecutive inflow , larger than the prior day (+$166.5m vs +$144.9m). That flow backdrop typically limits immediate spot capitulation risk. Derivatives cooled notably: CME front settled essentiall...